Despite all of the news about tariffs and trade, the spread between high yield junk bonds and 10-year Treasuries is currently within 10% to 20% of the narrowest spreads that have occurred over the past 10 years, and more than 35% below the 30-year average spread. In other words, the bond market is suggesting the U.S.economy is in good shape and growth is not a concern at this time.
OPEC producers continue to be squeezed by their fiscal breakeven levels, which on average is between $90 and $100 per barrel of Brent Crude. In other words, this is not their breakeven price to produce a barrel of oil. Rather, this is the price per barrel of Brent Crude, in U.S. dollars, these countries need in order to balance their budgets, most of which include large social programs which are very difficult to reduce or cut.